Statistical Analysis

📊 Is Normal a Sucker Bet?

10,000 simulations · 17 season-active players · field mix B

Model, not prophecy. These simulations assume historical skill distributions, random field mixes, and simplified curse penalties. Your actual results will vary based on field composition, your skill level, and luck.

Executive Summary

NORMAL

0.69

Expected Open points

HARD

0.64

Expected Open points

GOD

0.42

Expected Open points

Normal has the best average (0.69 expected points), but only slightly ahead of Hard (0.64). God mode is negative expected value under the assumed curse penalties (+1.9/+4.8 strokes).

Double Down is -EV in general. Your back-nine needs to be strictly better than the front, but P(back<front) ≈ 50% for most players. God 1st place needs ~71% success rate to break even due to the +14 cap.

Optional: Hard 1st place payout could be increased to +8 if we want to incentivize more Hard entries.

Expected Value by Tier

Average season points earned per player, assuming random field mix and no Double Down.

Bar chart showing expected Open season points by tier: Normal 0.69, Hard 0.64, God 0.44

N=10,000 sims · random ~50/35/15 Normal/Hard/God each sim · no DD · curse +1.9/+4.8 strokes

Matthew McAlear — EV by Tier × DD Strategy

Comparing Double Down strategies for the current season leader across all three tiers.

Bar chart showing Matthew's expected value: highest with No DD or conditional DD strategies

N=10,000 · others fixed mix B by standings rank · Matthew skill mean net=79.6 (n=7)

Double Down Breakeven Analysis

Success rate needed for Double Down to outperform no-DD strategy, by place and tier.

Chart showing DD success rates needed: ~50% baseline, but 71% for God 1st due to +14 cap

Place-conditional: need p ≥ base / min(2·base, 14). Cap binds God 1st (20→14). Front/back corr=0.4.

Win & Top-3 Probability by Tier Choice

If the median player (Sophie Therien) picks each tier, what are her chances?

Bar chart: Normal gives 8.7% win / 24.9% top-3, Hard 5.1% / 17.1%, God 2.0% / 8.5%

Median standings player: Sophie Therien · others on mix B · N=10,000 · no DD

Current Season Standings (Top 12)

Who benefits most from Open bonuses? Matthew leads, Thomas close behind, Rachel third.

Horizontal bar chart of season standings: Matthew 235.7, Thomas 230.2, Rachel 225.5

From standings.json · Matthew 235.7 · Thomas 230.2 · Rachel 225.5 · Dan 223.9

Stroke-Penalty Tornado (Hard/God EV Sensitivity)

How much do different curse penalties change the expected value for Hard and God modes?

Tornado chart showing EV sensitivity to curse penalties: one-club dominates the range

One-at-a-time sweeps · mix B random · defaults one-club=1.2, gimme=0.3, mulligan=0.4, driver=0.5

Inequality of Open EV & Season-Leader Capture

Does tier choice affect how evenly Open points are distributed, or how often the season leader wins?

Two charts: Gini ~0.37-0.39 across scenarios; season-leader capture ~37% all cases

N=10,000 · no DD · Gini on player EVs · top-5 by current seasonScore

Open Points Under Mix B (Fixed by Rank, No DD)

Distribution of total season points awarded and how they spread across the top-12 players.

Histogram and box plots showing points distribution across simulations and players

N=10,000 · payout Normal 5/3/1 · Hard 7/4/2 · God 10/6/3 · field=17

Key Takeaways

Normal is safe, not stupid. Highest EV for most players, best top-3 odds for median skill.
Hard is close behind. Only ~8% lower EV on average, decent upside if you're confident.
God is for glory. Negative EV under these curse assumptions, but 3× the payout if you win.
Skip Double Down. Unless you have strong evidence your back-nine is consistently better, the 50% base rate makes it -EV even without the cap.
Field mix matters. If everyone picks Normal, winning gets harder. Strategic tier choice could help.

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